Rip Curl Cup Forecast powered by Surfline
Rip Curl Cup Padang Padang Forecast Effective Saturday, July 20th (local time)
Event window: July 1st-31st
New SW swell will build through the day on Monday and should peak during the afternoon and evening hours. During the swell’s peak we expect to see set waves in the 8-10’ range on the face (4-6’ local scale) with a few larger waves not out of the question as the tide drops later Monday afternoon and evening. Moderate offshore SE trades will set up clean conditions through the day.
This swell is the product of a recent fetch in the south-central Indian Ocean. While this was not an abnormally large or strong storm, it did have a couple factors that we like to see:
- It took a favorable track toward Bali and even set up a captured fetch for around 24 hours (where the strongest wind remained over the strongest developing seas)
- It had good high pressure support (1032-1036mb) on its western flank
- It was fairly close to Bali and peak seas occurred around 2500 miles away
Recent satellite passes displayed a good size fetch of 35-45 knot wind with smaller, but still very respectable, fetch of 50 knot wind. Peak seas verified by satellite were in the 35-37’ range, although we also never saw a great pass through the real heart of the storm.
Monday morning may be a little slow as the swell starts filling in, although the low tide in the morning should help with surf size. The swell should really come on by mid-day and fill in further for the afternoon. The later afternoon and evening hours are likely to see the largest and best surf of the day as the swell builds to a peak and the tide drops. Wave face size of 8-10’ is expected through the afternoon on Monday, with the very largest waves of the afternoon potentially hitting 12’ (4-6’+ faces local scale). Normal SE trades are expected through the day at 10-15 knots for clean conditions.
Going further out, it appears that the above swell is the last real chance for the event to run at this time. We do expect to see a strong SSW swell for the 24th-25th, although the swell direction –about 10 degrees more south than the above swell -- is likely to really limit size at Padang. The last few days of July then look fairly slow for swell.